VW Likely to Overtake Toyota as Top Carmaker in 2011, GM to Remain Second

Volkswagen AG (VOW) will probably become the world’s biggest carmaker this year, vaulting past Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) and General Motors Co. (GM) on gains in emerging markets.

The German company’s sales, third among carmakers in 2010, will probably rise 13 percent to 8.1 million vehicles this year, based on the average of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. GM sales will gain about 8 percent to 7.55 million, while Toyota will drop 9 percent to 7.27 million, according to the survey.

VW sales in China may rise almost 20 percent in 2011 and more than double in India, according to estimates at researcher J.D. Power & Associates. That’s a contrast to Toyota, which is suspending Southeast Asian plants because of floods in Thailand, months after an earthquake crippled production in Japan.

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